everything that's on my mind
(as if there's not already enough people doing this)Wednesday, March 15, 2006
A touch of madness
Well, it's just a few short hours away. The NCAA tournament. The big dance. March Madness. It is, by far, the greatest time of the year.
I have made my picks. I am not completely happy with them - I never am - and very possibly will change some of them before 11:00am or so tomorrow when the first games tip off. I've never been very good at it, usually failing miserably in any pools I join (although they're usually only for bragging rights. I don't recall ever joining a pool for money. I figure I can just flush it down the toilet myself.) The one year I did very well, and in fact won a pool, was two years ago. In 2004, I picked 3 final four teams (Connecticut, Georgia Tech, and Duke), and also picked the championship game correctly (Connecticut over Georgia Tech.) That was the one year I should've joined a money pool. This year, I suspect, will be the usual. We'll see.
My picks are linked in my left sidebar under March Madness.
So, what about this bracket? I've had some thoughts this week, and here's what I came up with.
Seeding Issues
There was a lot of seed talk on Sunday night. George Washington's seed was considered too low by some, and on target by others. I haven't seen them play, so I have no opinion. The biggest seed issue many had - including me - was Tennessee getting a #2 seed. After losing four of their last six, including in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament, they got a #2 seed, while tournament winner Florida got a #3, and regular season winner LSU got a #4. I've no idea how they deserved that. Also, they got to go to nearby Greensboro, while North Carolina (another #3 seed that's better than Tennessee, and finished much stronger), was shipped to Dayton. Syracuse went from being in the NIT to a #5 seed, which seems a little high for them. Many seem to think Gonzaga got screwed, but I'm not so sure. Yeah, they should've been a #2 before Tennessee, but I think I would have to give North Carolina and even Boston College (who I think deserved a #3 instead of a #4) the #2 seed before Gonzaga. Some continue to point out that Connecticut is the real #1 overall seed, because they're supposedly the best team. However, Duke got it because they did what Connecticut and Villanova didn't - they won their conference tournament, while the other two didn't even reach their final.
Atlanta
Duke should coast to the sweet 16. I can't see Southern, GW, or UNCW giving them any trouble, especially since they're playing in Greensboro, where they just won 3 games in the ACC tournament. I think there they should meet LSU in the sweet 16. I think LSU could struggle in the first couple of rounds, but I don't think Syracuse will have anything left after the Big East tournament. A popular pick has been Texas A&M over Syracuse, but I think after being upset by Vermont last year, Syracuse will win their first game, but that's it. I've seen a lot of people picking LSU over Duke, but I don't see that happening. Duke is hungry again. On the other side, I think Iowa will reach the final eight. They will beat West Viriginia in a good 2nd round game, while California will beat Texas on the other side, and then Iowa will beat Cal to face Duke. Duke beats Iowa to reach it's 15th final four and some unfinished business for the seniors.
Oakland
It seems most agree that Memphis is the weakest #1 seed, and the fact that they haven't played anyone in 2 months (i.e. weak conference) will hurt them. I actually saw someone this week - in a published article - pick ORU over Memphis in round one. I would love to see that, but I don't think that's going to happen. Bucknell will probably beat Arkansas, even though many in Arkansas continue to talk about a Memphis-Arkansas game, where there would be some bad blood. Pitt and Kansas will be a great 2nd round game as well, but I see Pitt reaching the final 8 by beating KU and Memphis. On the other side, I think Indiana is going to make one last run with Mike Davis, and take out Gonzaga in the 2nd round (Gonzaga has an even weaker conference than Memphis, so they're in the same boat.) I pick Marquette to upset UCLA in round two, then advance to play Pitt in the regional final. Pitt moves on to the final four.
Minneapolis
Villanova should advance easily enough - I think they'll beat Wisconsin in round two. Boston College will beat Nevada and then take out Villanova in the sweet 16. It seems more and more often that we end up with two double digit seeds pulling off upsets and playing in the 2nd round, and I'm picking those two teams to be UW-Milwaukee and South Alabama this year. John Pelphrey's SA team will beat Florida (where Pelphrey was an assistant under Donovan) in a big first-round upset, and then beat Milwaukee in round two. Ohio State will have a battle with Georgetown in round two, but will prevail to face SA in the sweet 16, where they will win and advance to face BC. A lot of people have jumped on the BC bandwagon, but I think they're legit (and so I guess that means I have, too.) Boston College will defeat OSU for a trip to the final four.
Washington
Some say this is the toughest bracket, and that could be true. Despite having beaten them in an #8 over #1 upset two years ago, I'm still picking UAB to beat Kentucky again. They will go no further as Connecticut will advance to the sweet 16. Illinois will beat Washington, then knock off the #1 seed Huskies. On the other side, Winthrop will shock a Tennessee team that's in a downward spiral, but will fail to advance past Seton Hall in round two. Michigan State will win a tough game against North Carolina - their experience will outlast the young UNC team. Michigan State will beat Seton Hall to face Illinois. The Illini will advance to their second straight final four.
Final Four
So, there's my four - Duke, Pitt, BC, and Illinois. Indianapolis will look like this. Duke beats Pitt, and Illinois will edge past Boston College. On Monday, the Duke s
eniors will get what they've been working toward for four years - and erase the memory of 2004. Duke's freshmen, who have begun to play great basketball the last part of the season, especially last week in Greensboro, will be just what the seniors need to reach their goal. Illinois falls to an ACC team for the second year in a row, and Duke wins it's fourth national championship.
So, is that really what will happen? Probably not. But that's my take on it anyway.
Let the madness begin...
I have made my picks. I am not completely happy with them - I never am - and very possibly will change some of them before 11:00am or so tomorrow when the first games tip off. I've never been very good at it, usually failing miserably in any pools I join (although they're usually only for bragging rights. I don't recall ever joining a pool for money. I figure I can just flush it down the toilet myself.) The one year I did very well, and in fact won a pool, was two years ago. In 2004, I picked 3 final four teams (Connecticut, Georgia Tech, and Duke), and also picked the championship game correctly (Connecticut over Georgia Tech.) That was the one year I should've joined a money pool. This year, I suspect, will be the usual. We'll see.
My picks are linked in my left sidebar under March Madness.
So, what about this bracket? I've had some thoughts this week, and here's what I came up with.
Seeding Issues
There was a lot of seed talk on Sunday night. George Washington's seed was considered too low by some, and on target by others. I haven't seen them play, so I have no opinion. The biggest seed issue many had - including me - was Tennessee getting a #2 seed. After losing four of their last six, including in the quarterfinals of the SEC tournament, they got a #2 seed, while tournament winner Florida got a #3, and regular season winner LSU got a #4. I've no idea how they deserved that. Also, they got to go to nearby Greensboro, while North Carolina (another #3 seed that's better than Tennessee, and finished much stronger), was shipped to Dayton. Syracuse went from being in the NIT to a #5 seed, which seems a little high for them. Many seem to think Gonzaga got screwed, but I'm not so sure. Yeah, they should've been a #2 before Tennessee, but I think I would have to give North Carolina and even Boston College (who I think deserved a #3 instead of a #4) the #2 seed before Gonzaga. Some continue to point out that Connecticut is the real #1 overall seed, because they're supposedly the best team. However, Duke got it because they did what Connecticut and Villanova didn't - they won their conference tournament, while the other two didn't even reach their final.
Atlanta
Duke should coast to the sweet 16. I can't see Southern, GW, or UNCW giving them any trouble, especially since they're playing in Greensboro, where they just won 3 games in the ACC tournament. I think there they should meet LSU in the sweet 16. I think LSU could struggle in the first couple of rounds, but I don't think Syracuse will have anything left after the Big East tournament. A popular pick has been Texas A&M over Syracuse, but I think after being upset by Vermont last year, Syracuse will win their first game, but that's it. I've seen a lot of people picking LSU over Duke, but I don't see that happening. Duke is hungry again. On the other side, I think Iowa will reach the final eight. They will beat West Viriginia in a good 2nd round game, while California will beat Texas on the other side, and then Iowa will beat Cal to face Duke. Duke beats Iowa to reach it's 15th final four and some unfinished business for the seniors.
Oakland
It seems most agree that Memphis is the weakest #1 seed, and the fact that they haven't played anyone in 2 months (i.e. weak conference) will hurt them. I actually saw someone this week - in a published article - pick ORU over Memphis in round one. I would love to see that, but I don't think that's going to happen. Bucknell will probably beat Arkansas, even though many in Arkansas continue to talk about a Memphis-Arkansas game, where there would be some bad blood. Pitt and Kansas will be a great 2nd round game as well, but I see Pitt reaching the final 8 by beating KU and Memphis. On the other side, I think Indiana is going to make one last run with Mike Davis, and take out Gonzaga in the 2nd round (Gonzaga has an even weaker conference than Memphis, so they're in the same boat.) I pick Marquette to upset UCLA in round two, then advance to play Pitt in the regional final. Pitt moves on to the final four.
Minneapolis
Villanova should advance easily enough - I think they'll beat Wisconsin in round two. Boston College will beat Nevada and then take out Villanova in the sweet 16. It seems more and more often that we end up with two double digit seeds pulling off upsets and playing in the 2nd round, and I'm picking those two teams to be UW-Milwaukee and South Alabama this year. John Pelphrey's SA team will beat Florida (where Pelphrey was an assistant under Donovan) in a big first-round upset, and then beat Milwaukee in round two. Ohio State will have a battle with Georgetown in round two, but will prevail to face SA in the sweet 16, where they will win and advance to face BC. A lot of people have jumped on the BC bandwagon, but I think they're legit (and so I guess that means I have, too.) Boston College will defeat OSU for a trip to the final four.
Washington
Some say this is the toughest bracket, and that could be true. Despite having beaten them in an #8 over #1 upset two years ago, I'm still picking UAB to beat Kentucky again. They will go no further as Connecticut will advance to the sweet 16. Illinois will beat Washington, then knock off the #1 seed Huskies. On the other side, Winthrop will shock a Tennessee team that's in a downward spiral, but will fail to advance past Seton Hall in round two. Michigan State will win a tough game against North Carolina - their experience will outlast the young UNC team. Michigan State will beat Seton Hall to face Illinois. The Illini will advance to their second straight final four.
Final Four
So, there's my four - Duke, Pitt, BC, and Illinois. Indianapolis will look like this. Duke beats Pitt, and Illinois will edge past Boston College. On Monday, the Duke s
eniors will get what they've been working toward for four years - and erase the memory of 2004. Duke's freshmen, who have begun to play great basketball the last part of the season, especially last week in Greensboro, will be just what the seniors need to reach their goal. Illinois falls to an ACC team for the second year in a row, and Duke wins it's fourth national championship.So, is that really what will happen? Probably not. But that's my take on it anyway.
Let the madness begin...
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